145 countries with higher COVID-19 cases and deaths after the COVID shots

145 countries with higher COVID-19 cases and deaths after the COVID shots

Any immunization program aims to provide more protection to the people against a particular infection. And that should reflect on the lower the number of cases and deaths after the program started.

Kyle Beattie discovered the opposite in 145 countries in his paper, Worldwide Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis of Vaccine Administration on Deaths and Cases Associated with COVID-19. A Big Data Analysis of 145 Countries.

Beattie is from the University of Alberta. Using publicly available information from Our World in Data, he analyzed it with several statistical tools, mainly the  CausalImpact R package. On its website,

The CausalImpact R package implements an approach to estimating the causal effect of a designed intervention on a time series.

For this study, the intervention is the COVID shot, and the effects are the number of cases and deaths after the injections were implemented. The results in 145 countries are statistically significant with an (average p-value of < 0.004). In statistics, a p-value of <0.05 is good enough). Statistically significant means that the results are not random or by chance alone.

The analysis showed that the treatment (COVID shots) has “a strong and significant propensity to causally increase the values of the total deaths per million and the total cases per million over and above what would have been expected without the vaccination.”

This means, 89.84% of statistically significant countries showed an increase in deaths associated with COVID-19 due directly to the causal impact of the vaccine initiation.

Below are the top ten countries with the highest increase in Total Deaths per Million associated with COVID-19 per Million after the COVID shots.

DrJesseSantiano.com

The figure below summarizes the increase in deaths after the COVID shots were started. The countries were grouped into continents. The more a country is on the right, the higher the increase in deaths.

Source: Beattie 2021

Not to inject politics, but I noticed that China and Hong Kong have -20% and -13% change in COVID deaths, respectively, while Taiwan has an increase of 2,767%!

The tables below show the percentage change in deaths associated with COVID-19 (y1.effect) after the COVID shot roll-out. (-) means fewer deaths, and a (+) sign indicates an increase after the shots.

Source: Beattie 2021
Source: Beattie 2021
Source: Beattie 2021
Source: Beattie 2021
Source: Beattie 2021
Source: Beattie 2021

The Tables below show the impact of COVID shots in Total COVID-19 Cases. (y2.effect). (-) means fewer cases, and a (+) sign is an increase after the shots.

This study is in accord with the previous articles:

 

There are 195 countries globally, and 74% have more COVID-19 cases and deaths after their governments implemented the COVID shots. It is time to rethink that policy.

 

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Reference: 

Kyle A. Beattie. Worldwide Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis of Vaccine Administration on Deaths and Cases Associated with COVID-19. A Big Data Analysis of 145 Countries. ResearchGate. Preprint

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