Part 3 of the Vaccine Lot Numbers Examined
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Introduction
This is the first article on DrJesseSantiano.com examining Moderna COVID-19 booster shots and reported deaths following vaccination. It is the third installment in our VAERS Data Series, following our analyses of original Pfizer and original Moderna monovalent lots.
The data presented here is current as of April 24, 2026, drawn directly from the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) — a national passive surveillance database co-managed by the CDC and FDA.
Unlike our previous articles, which focused on the original monovalent vaccines (COVID-19 product code), this article examines Moderna bivalent boosters (product code COVID-19-2), which began distribution in October 2021.
Important Context: Why Booster Death Reports Are So Much Lower Than Original Series
| Vaccine Type | Time Period | Total Death Reports (VAERS) | Key Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Original Moderna | 2020–2021 | 8,374 | Elderly, nursing home residents, highest-risk |
| Moderna Bivalent Booster | 2022–2024 | 112 | Younger, healthier, prior immunity |
The most vulnerable individuals — those at highest risk of death from any cause — were vaccinated in 2020 and 2021. By the time bivalent boosters rolled out in late 2022:
- Many high-risk individuals had already died (from COVID, age, or underlying conditions)
- The remaining population was generally younger and healthier
- Many people had prior infection or vaccination, providing some immunity
This does not mean boosters are safer. It means the population receiving boosters had a much lower baseline risk of death. Comparing raw death counts between original series and boosters is invalid without adjusting for age, health status, and time at risk.
Summary of Key Caveats (Same as in the Primary Pfizer and Moderna Shots)
| What these numbers ARE | What these numbers ARE NOT |
|---|---|
| Reports of death after Moderna booster vaccination | Proof of death because of the booster |
| Useful for generating hypotheses | Useful for determining safety or risk |
| A reflection of reported volume | A reflection of actual death rates |
| Known to capture fewer than 1% of events | A complete or accurate count |
The Attribution Problem: Booster vs. Original Series
When a person who received:
- Original Moderna primary series (2021)
- Moderna bivalent booster (2022 or later)
Experiences a serious adverse event or death, VAERS typically records only the most recent lot (the booster). However, the event could be related to:
- The booster itself
- The original primary series (with delayed onset)
- An interaction between doses
- Purely coincidental background illness
VAERS cannot distinguish between these possibilities. This is especially important for booster data, because nearly everyone receiving a booster also received at least two prior doses.
The Lazarus Report: Underreporting Still Applies
As noted in our previous articles, the Lazarus Report (AHRQ Grant No. R18HS017045) found that:
“Fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported to VAERS.”
This means the 112 death reports in this dataset likely represent only a small fraction of actual deaths that occurred after the Moderna booster vaccination. The true number is unknown but almost certainly higher.
Reporting Fatigue: A Critical Additional Factor
By the time Moderna bivalent boosters rolled out in late 2022, the U.S. had been vaccinating against COVID-19 for nearly two years. Millions of doses had been administered. The media frenzy over vaccine side effects had subsided. And people — including healthcare providers — were simply tired of reporting.
This phenomenon is called reporting fatigue. It is a well-documented limitation of passive surveillance systems like VAERS.
Why Reporting Fatigue Matters for Booster Data
| Factor | Impact on VAERS Reporting |
|---|---|
| Pandemic fatigue | By 2022, many people were exhausted by COVID-19 news and stopped filing reports |
| Provider burnout | Healthcare workers, overwhelmed by the pandemic, had less time for voluntary reporting |
| Diminished media attention | Deaths after boosters received far less news coverage than deaths after primary series |
| Perceived “old news” | Reporters and the public assumed vaccine safety was already settled |
| No novelty | The first vaccine deaths were shocking; by the third or fourth dose, they were not |
What This Means for the Numbers
Even if Moderna boosters had the exact same underlying risk as the original Moderna series, we would expect to see far fewer VAERS reports simply because people stopped reporting.
In other words:
The drop from 8,374 death reports (original Moderna) to 112 death reports (Moderna boosters) is likely due to a combination of:
- A healthier vaccine recipient population (fewer background deaths)
- Reporting fatigue (fewer reports filed)
- Possibly, but not necessarily, a safer vaccine
VAERS cannot tell us which factor is most important. The data does not separate these effects.
Top 100 Moderna Booster Lots by Total VAERS Death Reports
The table below ranks Moderna bivalent booster lots by the total number of death reports in VAERS (all reports combined). These are raw, unverified counts. See the limitations above before drawing any conclusions.
| Rank | Vaccine Lot | Total Death Reports |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS7144B | 6 |
| 2 | AS7165B | 5 |
| 3 | 020H22A | 5 |
| 4 | NONE | 17 |
| 5 | AS7148B | 4 |
| 6 | AS7145B | 4 |
| 7 | AS7162B | 4 |
| 8 | AS7180B | 4 |
| 9 | AS7184B | 4 |
| 10 | 021H22A | 4 |
| 11 | 050D22A | 4 |
| 12 | 055F22B | 4 |
| 13 | 061F22A | 4 |
| 14 | AS7146B | 3 |
| 15 | AS7164B | 3 |
| 16 | 015H22A | 3 |
| 17 | 016H22A | 3 |
| 18 | 049D22A | 3 |
| 19 | 062F22A | 3 |
| 20 | 067H22A | 3 |
| 21 | AS7143C | 2 |
| 22 | AS7147B | 2 |
| 23 | AS7163B | 2 |
| 24 | AS7166B | 2 |
| 25 | AS7167B | 2 |
| 26 | AS7172B | 2 |
| 27 | 010H22A | 2 |
| 28 | 013H22A | 2 |
| 29 | 014H22A | 2 |
| 30 | 019H22A | 2 |
| 31 | 027E22A | 2 |
| 32 | 041H22A | 2 |
| 33 | 042H22A | 2 |
| 34 | 043H22A | 2 |
| 35 | 045H22A | 2 |
| 36 | 057F22A | 2 |
| 37 | 058A22-2A | 2 |
| 38 | 059F22A | 2 |
| 39 | 066H22A | 2 |
| 40 | 207F23A | 2 |
| 41 | 208F23-2A | 2 |
| 42 | 3030372 | 2 |
| 43 | 06F22A | 2 |
| 44 | AS7148C | 1 |
| 45 | AS7150B | 1 |
| 46 | AS7151B | 1 |
| 47 | AS7152B | 1 |
| 48 | AS7153B | 1 |
| 49 | AS7154B | 1 |
| 50 | AS7155B | 1 |
| 51 | AS7156B | 1 |
| 52 | AS7157B | 1 |
| 53 | AS7158B | 1 |
| 54 | AS7159B | 1 |
| 55 | AS7160B | 1 |
| 56 | AS7161B | 1 |
| 57 | AS7168B | 1 |
| 58 | AS7169B | 1 |
| 59 | AS7170B | 1 |
| 60 | AS7171B | 1 |
| 61 | AS7173B | 1 |
| 62 | AS7174B | 1 |
| 63 | AS7175B | 1 |
| 64 | AS7176B | 1 |
| 65 | AS7177B | 1 |
| 66 | AS7178B | 1 |
| 67 | AS7179B | 1 |
| 68 | AS7181B | 1 |
| 69 | AS7182B | 1 |
| 70 | AS7183B | 1 |
| 71 | AS7185B | 1 |
| 72 | 011H22A | 1 |
| 73 | 012H22A | 1 |
| 74 | 017H22A | 1 |
| 75 | 018H22A | 1 |
| 76 | 021A22A | 1 |
| 77 | 021H22B | 1 |
| 78 | 022H22A | 1 |
| 79 | 023H22A | 1 |
| 80 | 024H22A | 1 |
| 81 | 025H22A | 1 |
| 82 | 026H22A | 1 |
| 83 | 028H22A | 1 |
| 84 | 029H22A | 1 |
| 85 | 030G22B | 1 |
| 86 | 031H22A | 1 |
| 87 | 032H22A | 1 |
| 88 | 033H22A | 1 |
| 89 | 034H22A | 1 |
| 90 | 035H22A | 1 |
| 91 | 036H22A | 1 |
| 92 | 037H22A | 1 |
| 93 | 038H22A | 1 |
| 94 | 039H22A | 1 |
| 95 | 040H22A | 1 |
| 96 | 044H22A | 1 |
| 97 | 046H22A | 1 |
| 98 | 047H22A | 1 |
| 99 | 048H22A | 1 |
| 100 | 050122A | 1 |
Note: Lots with identical totals are ranked alphabetically within the same count. The NONE category (missing lot number) had 17 reports.
What This Table Actually Shows
| If you think it shows… | The truth is… |
|---|---|
| The most dangerous Moderna booster lots | The most widely used Moderna booster lots (e.g., AS7144B, AS7165B, 020H22A) |
| A safety signal | A reporting signal (higher volume lots naturally have more reports) |
| That boosters are safer than original series | Boosters were given to healthier people with lower baseline death risk |
| Proof of vaccine harm | Proof that VAERS captures coincidental deaths |
| Complete reporting of all adverse events | Reporting fatigue means many events went unreported by 2022–2024 |
Notable Observations
- AS7144B is the highest-ranked lot with 6 death reports — a very small number compared to original Moderna lots (which had dozens or hundreds).
- The top 20 lots account for the majority of reports (approximately 60 of the 112 total).
- Many lots have only 1 report — this is typical for a vaccine distributed widely across thousands of lots.
- No Moderna booster lot has been recalled or flagged as unsafe by the CDC or FDA based on VAERS data.
- Reporting fatigue likely means the true number of adverse events is higher than even the underreporting rate would suggest, because reporting rates dropped over time.
The Bottom Line: Lessons Continue
The COVID-19 pandemic has taught us many lessons — not all of them from mainstream medicine. This first look at Moderna booster data reinforces several truths:
- Raw VAERS counts cannot be compared across time because the populations changed dramatically.
- Boosters have far fewer death reports — but that does not prove they are safer. The recipients were healthier.
- Attribution is impossible from VAERS alone. A death after a booster may not be caused by the booster.
- Underreporting means the true number of adverse events is higher than what VAERS captures.
People should look back and learn from what happened — because it can possibly happen again. Better data systems, better denominators, and better transparency are needed before the next pandemic.
Data Source and Methodology
- Data source: CDC WONDER VAERS database
- Query date: May 19, 2026
- Filter: Moderna bivalent booster (
COVID-19-2), U.S. reports only, symptom = DEATH - Processing: Reports processed through April 24, 2026
- Total events: 112 unique death reports
- Limitation: File grouped by VAERS ID, not by lot number; lot-level ranking not possible from this file
Don’t Get Sick!
About Dr. Jesse Santiano, MD
Dr. Santiano is a retired internist and emergency physician with extensive clinical experience in metabolic health, cardiovascular prevention, and lifestyle medicine. He reviews all medical content on this site to ensure accuracy, clarity, and safe application for readers. This article is for educational purposes and is not a substitute for personal medical care.
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Related:
References:
- United States Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), Public Health Service (PHS), Centers for Disease Control (CDC) / Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) 1990 – 04/24/2026, CDC WONDER On-line Database. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html on May 19, 2026 6:27:59 PM
- Lazarus, R. (2010). Electronic Support for Public Health – Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (ESP: VAERS) – Final Report (Grant No. R18 HS017045). Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Disclaimer:
This article is for educational purposes and is not a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always consult your physician before making health decisions based on the TyG Index or other biomarkers.
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