At first glance, it is scary because it looks like the epidemic is spreading like a raging wildfire.  However, there is a silver lining.

Most of the U.S. right now has limited travel. Schools, factories, offices, sports, and even church services have been canceled. Social isolation has been imposed on the people.

It can then be argued that the new cases have been there all along. Just waiting to be tested and identified.

Identification of cases leads to many positive things.

1. Allows for a more efficient Contact Tracing

The recognition of positive Covid-19 can now allow for contact tracing. Contact tracing is the identification of persons who may have come into contact with the infected person. Those contacts can then be tested.

Another data obtained is knowing the places where the infected person has been. An announcement where the infected person has been may alert others who may have been there at the same time. They may require testing too.

At this time, test kits are limited in supply. Their use should be limited to those who will most likely be positive.

For example, if we get 10 random people on the streets and test them for Covid-19, only 1 of them might turn out positive. But if we use the information from our contact tracing, we might get a better yield like 6-7 positive cases out of 10.

That will be a more efficient use of the test kits

2. More Directed Quarantine and Isolation

When a person is infected, and they are asymptomatic, they can quarantine themselves at home and prevent the spread to their family, co-workers, and the entire community.

The at-risk group consisting of the elderly and people with chronic medical conditions will benefit the most since they have complicated Covid-19 course and have the highest mortality.

Infection precautions like social distancing, proper handwashing, and even wearing a mask should also be reinforced.

3. Protects the Health Care Sytem

If the Covid-19 patient will need medical attention and they identify themselves to have Covid-19, the doctors and nurses can wear the appropriate protective equipment so that they don’t get infected.

If health workers are exposed and become positive, they have to stay at home, which can further stress an understaffed hospital.   And worse,  if they get sick and die, then the lower numbers of doctors and nurses can cripple the health services to the whole community.

3. Protects the other Patients

Most patients in a hospital have a weakened immune system, exposure to the Covid-19 virus can easily lead to pneumonia and other complications, and prolong their hospital course. More extended hospitalization means fewer beds available for new patients admitted from the emergency rooms.

A full emergency room will have difficulty seeing new patients since there is not enough space to see them.

Separating the known Covid-19 patients will prevent the spread to these vulnerable people.

4. A high number of cases can Lower the Death Rate

Many factors can modify the Case Fatality Rate, commonly known as the death rate like how deadly the disease is, the health condition of the population, the health care system, and the number of cases detected.

The death rate is calculated as the number of deaths of a particular disease divided by the total cases of that disease multiplied by 100 to get a percentage

The higher the denominator, the lower the death rate. Let’s look at the U.S. data below from today.

 

 

The numbers on the table right above are U.S. data. 1,288 deaths divided by 85,486 cases multiplied by 100 is a 1.5% case fatality rate for the U.S.

To put it into context, the death rate for the whole world is 4.5%. In Italy, it is a whopping 10%. China is 4%, Spain has 7.5%.

So the death rate for the U.S. doesn’t look as bad as the others, but it can always be better.

Death rates can change with time. That is why prevention should always be in mind.

Take Away Message

The detection of Covid-19 cases should not just stop there. Identification should be followed by quarantines, patient isolation, and contact tracing.

Strict observance of this can slow down the number of seriously ill Covid-19 cases and prevent the hospitals from getting overwhelmed.

That way, the health care system can continue to provide care for everyone, including the uninfected.

Hand washing, social isolation, and wearing a mask, especially if you are sick, go along away in containing this pandemic.

Don’t Get Sick!

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DrJesseSantiano.com does not provide medical advice, diagnosis or treatment

Image Credit:

Contact Tracing By CFCF – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=88348237