What Should Happen Before the Lockdowns are Relaxed?

A lockdown is a tool for epidemic control.   Movement and gatherings are controlled. Work, schools, and social groups are suspended to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

A lockdown cannot go on forever. Lockdowns can have psychological, social effects, and severe economic effects. That is why it has to end sometime.

One significant advantage of relaxing the lockdown is the development of herd immunity as more people get infected. Recall that the majority of Covid-19 cases have mild symptoms.

60-70% of the population should have immunity to the virus to attain herd immunity.

But what finally determines an end to the lockdown? Since the Covid-19 virus is the cause of the lockdown, then it is the knowledge about that particular virus that should be used to end the lockdown.

What should everyone know about the SARS-CoV-2 virus before the lockdown ends?

1. It is highly transmissible. The virus spreads by droplets, touching contaminated surfaces and by airborne means.
2. People who think they are healthy can be an asymptomatic carrier and spread the virus.
3. The elderly, people with chronic medical problems like hypertension, diabetes, and obesity have a higher risk of having a more severe illness and death.
4. The rest of the adult population, even without medical problems, can also have a  deadly form of the disease.
5. No definitive medicines are available, although many are undergoing trials.
6. Safe vaccines are months or even a year away.
7. Many cities and hospitals are still struggling with Covid-19 patients.
8. There is still a shortage of Protective personal equipment (PPE).
9. The only flicker of hope is antibody testing against the COVID-19. But, we don’t know for sure how long the immunity will last.

At present, the case fatality rate continues to rise globally. The global data might not reflect individual countries or cities, but generally speaking, it looks like there is no firm handle on the pandemic as the deaths continue to rise.

What Should Happen First Before Lockdowns are lifted?

1. Hand-washing, disinfection, and social distancing should become second nature to individuals.
2. Border control, rapid testing, and necessary quarantines should be implemented.
3. Quarantine places should be pleasant for use.
4. Accurate and rapid testing for SARS-CoV-2 with results in minutes should be used even for asymptomatic cases.
5. Aggressive tracing and testing of the secondary and tertiary contacts of the positive cases should be implemented.
6. The results of the test should be analyzed in real-time to identify and intervene in the “hot-spots.”
7. Widespread antibody testing of those who have recovered, health workers should be implemented to know who can go back to work,
8. Close monitoring of those who have positive antibodies is needed to identify if they get sick again or if they infect someone.
9. The universal use of masks should be strictly implemented.
10. A system for fast peer-review of studies related to the Covid-19 to sort out useful reports from poor quality information.
11. Daily presentation of useful medical information to the public.
12. Eliminate fake news and fake preventive and treatment measures.
13. Stop politicizing the pandemic.
14. Increase the supply of PPEs by increased production or effective resterilization.
15. Publish the studies of drug trials as soon as available.
16. Make the hospitals more robust to accommodate any surge of patients.

What can happen when lockdown are relaxed?

Everything that is put in place should work together seamlessly.  Like gears in a machine. Whether the new machine works or not should be continuously reevaluated.

The OODA loop or Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act loop can be used to iron out any kinks in the new process.

What is certain is uncertainty. The lockdown easing may not be successful in all areas.

If cases increase, more lockdowns can be expected. The machine or system will need constant fine-tuning as time passes.

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Related Readings:

1. O.O.D.A. Loop Health Applications

2. Obesity is a Risk Factor for Covid-19 Hospitalization

3. Yale University’s Take on Cloth Masks for Everyone

4. Zero Death and only 267 COVID-19 in Vietnam. Here’s why.

5. New Zealand has one of the lowest Covid-19 Death Rates at 0.3 %. Here’s what they did.

6. SARS-CoV-2 Contamination in the Hospital Setting

7. How Long Can the Covid-19 Virus Survive in Common Surfaces?

8. Alcohol Abuse, Covid-19, and Lung Complications

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16. 10 Things Anyone Can Do to Lower the Covid-19 Death Rate

17. New Covid-19 data confirms the need for 2-week Quarantine

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