The Wuhan coronavirus pneumonia is also known as the 2019-new coronavirus or 2019-nCoV. It was late renamed Covid-19 by the WHO.
The rapid spread of the 2019-nCoV prompted the Chinese government to cancel all public transportation this Chinese New Year. Doing so effectively put millions of people under quarantine. The drastic decision is unprecedented. Here are the reasons why the new Wuhan coronavirus is very deadly.
1. The 2019-nCoV is Easily Transmitted
The Wuhan coronavirus spreads by droplet and contact. A Cough can throw a virus 6 meters away and suspend a microbe in the air for 10 minutes. Sneezing can spread germs at a distance of 8 meters.
2. Many Cases are Under-Reported
As of now, the official tally is 2082 cases, with 56 deaths.
The data above may not fully report the real numbers. According to the Wall Street Journal, some relatives are questioning why the cause of death in some death certificates does not mention the Wuhan coronavirus pneumonia but only Viral pneumonia or pneumonia.
The possible reason is that the hospital does not have a specific test to identify the Wuhan virus. A test called the real-time Reverse-Transcription polymerase chain reaction or RT-PCR is not yet available for mass production.
Doctors cannot put Wuhan pneumonia as the cause of death if they do not have any objective evidence that it is Wuhan. That is why when the deaths are counted, the number of deaths because of the Wuhan virus will appear smaller.
3. Asymptomatic Carriers of the Wuhan Virus
People will tend to stay away from a sick person and not get infected. An asymptomatic carrier is a person who harbors the disease but does not have any signs of illness. But even without symptoms, an asymptomatic carrier can spread the infection to other people.
In my article, Walking Coronavirus Pneumonia Can Spread the Disease, there was a 10-year old who did not have any symptoms but had viral pneumonia on a C.T. scan. The child then tested positive for the virus using the RT-PCR.
4. Incubation Period of Several Days
The incubation period is the time from when a person was exposed to the virus until symptoms manifest. During the incubation period, someone can be an asymptomatic carrier and be infectious.
Significance: The more days of incubation, the longer the opportunity to spread the infection. Especially with an asymptomatic carrier. It has been estimated that the Wuhan virus may have an incubation period of 5-10 days and some cases as long as 15. During that time, the carrier can spread the virus.
5. Wuhan Pneumonia Can Present Differently
Typically, before a doctor considers that someone has pneumonia, the following should be present: Cough productive of phlegm, difficulty breathing, chest pains, and high fever.
A patient with Wuhan coronavirus pneumonia can have just one of the following: sore throat, diarrhea, sneezing, cough, sinus headache, and without a fever. Symptoms like this will not warrant additional testing.
Significance: The Wuhan coronavirus pneumonia will be missed in these patients. They will be discharged back to the community and continue to spread the disease.
6. Non-Identification of the Sick and Their Contacts will Make Isolation Difficult
In epidemics, one strategy is to contain the sick and their close contacts. If the carrier of the Wuhan virus is asymptomatic, then it is impossible to identify who to isolate. That ensures the continued spread of the virus.
7. Right now, the only way to Diagnose 2019-nCoV is only available at CDC
The RT-PCR is not yet widely available in the U.S., like the strep screen or the flu swab. Currently, the swabs to detect Wuhan coronavirus will have to be sent overnight to the CDC. If the test is not done, no identification of the Wuhan virus will happen.
8. The 2019-nCoV will Easily Overwhelm the Health Care System
Once the public knows that the 2019-nCoV is in their locale, any respiratory symptom, fever, cough, or headache, will prompt a visit to their doctor who will refer them to the emergency room. Presently, the E.R.s are stretched, and waiting times can be in hours.
In Wuhan, photos of the emergency room’s waiting area and corridors show people standing shoulder to shoulder because there is no room to sit.
9. No Vaccines or Anti-virals are Widely Available for 2019-nCoV
It may take months to develop and distribute a vaccine. Vaccine development may also be a challenge since the coronavirus is an RNA virus that constantly mutates.
10. Ease of Transportation Can Easily Spread the Contagion
Anyone who is an asymptomatic carrier of 2019-nCoV can quickly board a plane, drive or get in a bus or railway and spread the infection. Before the lockdown at Wuhan was enforced, 5 million people were able to get out.
Getting Ready
N95 masks are getting sold out in the US, Canada, and Asia. They are still available at a higher price. I suspect the next items that will run out will be health isolation gowns, goggles, and gloves.
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References:
- Read et al. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. medRxiv preprint first posted online Jan. 24, 2020; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549
- Jasper Fuk-Woo Chan et al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster Lancet. Published:January 24, 2020DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30154-9
Image Credit:
Wuhan Virus Table from South China Morning Post
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