Jonathan Read is a well-published infectious disease researcher from Lancaster University in the UK.
In this report, Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions, Read’s group came with the following conclusions:
- The basic reproduction number (Rο) or how many people a person with coronavirus will infect is 3.6 to 4
- Only 5.1% of the infections in Wuhan are identified. The official number reported is grossly underestimated.
- If no change in control or transmission happens, the infection will continue to other Chinese cities and exported internationally at an increasing rate.
- In 14 days (February 4, 2020), the predicted number of sick in Wuhan will be >190,000. The most significant outbreaks will be in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Chengdu.
- By February 4, 2020, the countries at the highest risk of getting infections are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
- With the enforced travel restrictions into and out of Wuhan, the epidemic will only be reduced by 24.9%
Why Did the Coronavirus Spread So Fast?
- The 2019 new coronavirus or 2019 nCoV, is believed to have started in Wuhan Seafood Wholesale Market in the first week of December.
- There were signs of person to person transmission before the market was closed on January 1, 2020. Some people were infected but not go to the animal market.
- Wuhan is a big city with 11 million people. The article, To Know What’s in Wuhan, is to Know Why Coronavirus is a Concern, showed that Wuhan is also a transport hub for high-speed trains. 6 major expressways and highways pass thru it. It has an international airport with 6 daily flights to Europe carrying 30,000 people.
- Even with the quarantine of 46 million Chinese, effective January 24, 2020, the coronavirus is already out of Wuhan and out of China.
- Many people may have the virus and unknowingly spread it (infectious carriers). There is a lag in the development of the symptoms as the body still fights the infection. Once the immune system becomes overwhelmed, that is when the symptoms like cough and fever appear. By the time they are quarantined, they have already spread the disease.
The Following is the Summary of the report Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions:
We are still in the early days of this outbreak and there is much uncertainty in both the scale of the outbreak, as well as key epidemiological information regarding transmission. However, the rapidity of the growth of cases since the recognition of the outbreak is much greater than that observed in outbreaks of either SARS or MERS-CoV. This is consistent with our higher estimates of the reproductive number for this outbreak compared to these other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.
Keep a close watch on the developments of the 2019 nCoV. Exercise precautions, and stay healthy.
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Related Readings:
- The Proper Use of a Personal Protective Equipment Against Infections
- 10 Reasons Why the Wuhan Coronavirus Pneumonia is a Nightmare
- Walking Coronavirus Pneumonia Can Spread the Disease
- UK Epidemic Specialist: 250,000 Chinese with Coronavirus in 10 days
- Coronavirus Infection Precautions
- To Know What’s in Wuhan is to Know Why Coronavirus is a Concern
- Anti Coronavirus Herbs and Drugs
Reference:
Read et al. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions. medRxiv preprint first posted online Jan. 24, 2020; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549
Image Credit:
- Coronavirus Table from South China Morning Post
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