CDC data shows the equal risk of COVID-19 hospitalization for convalescent and vax induced immunity

The CDC has a Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) report released on January 19, 2021. COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations by COVID-19 Vaccination Status and Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis — California and New York, May–November 2021.

The table below shows the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations among the Vaccinated and Unvaccinated in California.

The table shows that the COVID-19 cases among those who recovered from COVID-19 are slightly lower among the vaccinated (3.6) than the unvaccinated (5.0) Red lines. Their hospitalization in indigo are the same for vaccinated and unvaccinated at 0.3

For those without a previous COVID-19, the vaccinated cases are much lower (15.5) than the unvaccinated with no previous COVID (128.5). The latter also have the highest hospitalization rate (11.5). Green rectangles.

Source: CDC January 19, 2022 MMWR

For New York State, the story is about the same. The vaccinated with a previous COVID-19 has fewer cases at 4.9 than the unvaccinated with prior COVID-19 at 6.2. Red lines.

The unvaccinated with no previous COVID-19 is 18.2, while The unvaccinated with no previous COVID-19 has the highest number of cases at 104.2 green lines. New York does not have hospitalization data.

So it looks like a done deal, right? The unvaccinated with no previous COVID-19 has the most cases and hospitalization.

Not so fast. Who are the unvaccinated? By CDC guidelines:

Fully vaccinated is defined as having received a second dose of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) or 1 dose of the Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccine ≥14 days.

That statement is also present in the description of the table on the CDC website.

Therefore, anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 and that person is not past the two weeks after their second shot of Pfizer or Moderna or two weeks after their first jab of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine are under the unvaccinated group!

There is no data available here in the US that shows how many COVID injected people test positive for COVID-19 after their shots. So let’s take a look at the data from their nearest neighbor, Alberta, Canada.

The Alberta, Canada data on post-injection COVID-19

Do you know how many people get COVID-19 before their second shot? Let’s take another look at the data from Alberta, Canada. Here are the number of COVID-19 cases after the first injection. Note how many patients are within the first 40 days of their first shot.

Source: Alberta.ca internet archive

Below are the number of COVID-19 cases between the second injection and COVID-19 diagnosis. Notice the number of cases before 14 days, and add those to the number of patients after the first shot. The CDC counts them under the “unvaccinated cases.”

Source: Alberta.ca internet archive

How about hospitalization?

The figure below shows hospitalization among those with a COVID-19 shot after the first dose of Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson and Johnson. They are grouped under the “unvaccinated” hospitalized as per CDC guidelines. That’s the majority of the hospitalizations!

Source: Alberta.ca internet archive

The patients hospitalized for COVID-19 within fourteen days after their second Pfizer or Moderna shot COVID-19 are also counted as “unvaccinated.”

Source: Alberta.ca internet archive

That’s the reason why the CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports are unreliable as to the number of those who are “unvaccinated.”

The takeaway message here is that natural immunity developed from a previous Covid-19 infection is as good as the COVID shots in protecting against COVID-19 without the risk of getting the shots adverse effects or even death.

There should be a separate category of people that received the injections that the CDC does not want to include among the vaccinated because it confounds the data interpretation regarding vaccine protection.   In the same token,  it also blurs the data about the unvaccinated.

A discussion about the Alberta data can is at Defective immunity and COVID-19 antibody-dependent enhancement in Alberta, Canada.

 

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