Lessons Learned from 72,314 COVID-19 Patients: A China CDC Study

ice_screenshot_20200218-153844 — Source: South China Morning Post

China Centers for Disease Control Weekly released on February 17 a comprehensive study of 72,314 Covid-19 patients.

The Good

Covid-19 infections in the 36-79 years old are considered mild in 80.9%. No deaths have occurred among those with mild or even severe symptoms.
A total of 1,023 deaths for a case fatality rate of 2.3%.
The epidemic curve of acute symptoms peaked around January 23-26 and begun to decline on February 11.

The Bad – Case Fatality Rates

The ≥80 age group had the highest case fatality rate of all age groups at 14.8%. The ≥ 80 age group has the most medical problems.
The case fatality rate for males was 2.8%, and for females, it was 1.7%.
By occupation, patients who reported being retirees had the highest case fatality rate at 5.1%,
While patients who reported no comorbid conditions (healthy) had a case fatality rate of 0.9%,
Patients with comorbid conditions had much higher rates—10.5% for those with cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6.0% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. Similar to what I wrote in Who Dies From the Coronavirus?
The case fatality rate was also very high for cases categorized as critical at 49.0%.
A total of 1,716 health workers have become infected, and 5 have died (0.3%)

ice_screenshot_20200218-153516 — Source: China Centre for Disease Control

The Scary

This novel coronavirus is highly contagious. It has spread extremely rapidly from a single city to the entire country within only about 30 days. To put it into context: China has a landmass of 9,596,961 km² or (3,705,407) mi². Unites States has 9,525,067 km² or 3,677,649 mi². Almost the same. Can the Covid-19 spread within the U.S. too in 30 days?
Moreover, it has achieved such far-reaching effects even in the face of extreme response measures, including the:
1. complete shutdown and isolation of whole cities,
2. cancellation of Chinese New Year celebrations,
3. prohibition of attendance at school and work,
4. massive mobilization of health and public health personnel as well as military medical units, and
5. rapid construction of entire hospitals.

China Strategies for Control of Covid-19

Isolation of whole cities,
Broadcast of critical information (e.g., promoting handwashing, mask-wearing, and care-seeking) with high frequency through multiple channels and
The mobilization of a multi-sector rapid response team is helping to curb the epidemic.

The Authors End with a Warning.

Although the epidemic appears to be in decline in the lead up to February 11, 2020, we may yet face more challenges. Huge numbers of people will soon be returning to work and school after the extended New Year holiday.

We need to prepare for a possible rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic in the coming weeks and months.

Concluding Thoughts:

Remember that China is under an authoritarian government, and they can do as they please. The People’s Republic of China is not concerned about civil rights, freedom of movement, free speech, property rights, and everything we take for granted in a democratic society.

If they want to shut down factories, offices, transportation, and business to control an epidemic, they can. Not a lot of countries can do that unless they declare martial law. The measures done in China may not be easily done elsewhere. That means if the Covid-19 begins to spread outside China, thousands more, if not millions, will be affected.

Dr. Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, has said, “Sixty percent of the world’s population is a vast number.” Some experts have projected that 60 – 80% of the world population will be affected.

With a case fatality rate of 2%, the final mortality numbers may be in the millions.

The Covi-19 is technically a pandemic now, and countries with weaker health care systems and governments will have a harder time identifying, isolating, and treating sick patients.

As individuals, we should try our best to stay as healthy as possible. We know what group has a high case fatality rate.

If you are hypertensive, diabetic, and have cardiac disease, follow your doctor’s orders about the right diet. Take your medications. Exercise and sleep enough.

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Don’t Get Sick!