In February 2022, Lancet published a paper that forecasted an almost three-fold increase in the number of people with dementia. From 57·4 million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 million cases in 2050.[1]
The Dementia Forecasting Collaborators authored the paper. They estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1.69:1), and they expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1.67:1).
The graphs below show the estimated trends in the all-age number of cases from 2019–50—females in pink and Males in blue.
The most significant increase is in north Africa and the Middle East (367%) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357%).
The smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in the high-income Asia Pacific (53%) and western Europe (74%).
The figure below shows the percentage change between 2019 and 2050 in the all-age number of individuals with dementia by country.
Source: Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Public Health. 2022 Feb 7The increase in dementia in sub-Saharan Africa is due to population growth, while in east Asia, it is from population aging.
Preventing Dementia
Dementia can be prevented. The Lancet Commission on dementia prevention, intervention, and care reported that there is ample evidence that the following risk factors for dementia are modifiable: [2]
- Low education
- Hypertension
- Hearing impairment
- Smoking
- Midlife obesity
- Depression
- Physical inactivity
- Diabetes
- Social isolation
- Excessive alcohol consumption
- Head injury
- Air pollution
All these risk factors account for about 40% of worldwide dementias, which could be prevented or delayed.
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Related:
- 6 Ways to Lower Your Dementia Risk
- Sleeping on Your Side can Prevent Dementia
- 8 Ways Decent Dental Care Defies Dementia
References:
- GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators. Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Public Health. 2022 Feb;7(2):e105-e125. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8. Epub 2022 Jan 6. PMID: 34998485; PMCID: PMC8810394.
- Livingston G, et al. Dementia prevention, intervention, and care: 2020 report of the Lancet Commission. Lancet. 2020 Aug 8;396(10248):413-446. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30367-6. Epub 2020 Jul 30. PMID: 32738937; PMCID: PMC7392084.
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