Using the 80/20 Principle for Covid-19

The 80/20 Rule is also the Law of Inequality or the Pareto principle. The idea is, not everyone contributes equally, and not all efforts produce comparable results.

20% of the energy will produce 80% of the results. 20% will provide 80% of the effect. A minority of the workers will contribute 80% of the results.

To illustrate. In a usual family, only parents are breadwinners. In a community or a country, a small majority has the most wealth.

In the fundraising described below, 80% of the donations will be contributed by only 20% of the donors.

Pareto_principle_applied_to_community_fundraising

The distribution does not necessarily have to be 80/20. It can be 99/1, 90/10, or 70/30. Whatever the ratio, it follows the principle of inequality.

A minority of Covid-19 patients make a majority of the effects

The current Covid-19 pandemic has infected almost 150 thousand and caused more than 5,600 deaths since December 2019. The case fatality rate or death rate is calculated at 5.7%. In comparison, the seasonal flu has 0.1%. Covid-19 is 57 times deadlier than the flu.

A previous study has shown that 80% of the cases of Covid-19 are mild and have a low chance of dying. Mild cases do not have to be admitted to a hospital and will get better on their own.

The same study also identified the ones who have a high risk of dying. These are the ≥80-years-old and other chronic medical problems like heart and lung disease, hypertension, diabetes, and cancer. They all account for 20% of the cases.

You can see the 80/20 principle at work here. Among all the Covid-19 patients, 20% have a high risk of dying.

That 20% who are at risk of dying are admitted to a hospital.

Critical Covid-19 patients require a lot of medical attention and life-saving equipment. Because of the risk of acquiring the infection, specialized protective equipment has to be worn.

Their stay in the hospital can get prolonged. The extended hospitalization leads to the unavailability of beds for other patients. The rooms where the Covid-19 patient has been sanitized thoroughly to assure that the next patient will not get infected. This also results in a slow turnover of beds, especially in emergency rooms.

Admission to an Intensive care unit is expensive. It averages at $31,679 ± 65,867. That study surveyed Canadian hospitals. In the U.S., it can be much more! It becomes a massive problem if the patient has limited or does not have health insurance.

As hospitals get overwhelmed by the volume of Covid-19 patients, other patients who also need hospital care may not have a bed available. This is what happened in China and what is happening in Italy.

Even the European Center for Disease Control forecasted that Covid-19 would overwhelm hospitals.

As the hospital gets inundated with patients, the rest will be affected, including the ones having an emergency like a heart attack and stroke, those needing surgery, and cancer patients.

That’s because the other specialists, like the surgeons and cancer doctors, will be called upon to manage the Covid-19 patients as the number of doctors dwindles secondary to illness. Thus leaving them no time to take care of their patients.

To summarize, only a minority, 20% of the Covid-19 infected, will be enough to incapacitate the hospital system and affect the provision of health for the surrounding community.

The 80/20 Rule to the Rescue

Since we know that most deaths are the elderly and people with chronic illnesses, we can focus the attention on that relatively small population who will have a more disabling Covid-19 infection.

Preventing that vulnerable population from getting infected will lead to lesser admission and congestion of the hospitals. If they do not get infected with Covid-19, their chance of dying gets lower.

Avoiding hospital congestion will ensure that the rest of the population will continue to have medical care.

The monetary cost of prevention is magnitudes cheaper than a hospital or ICU admission.

A bar of handwashing soap can last for weeks. How much is that? Less than a dollar? Rubbing alcohol? Same too.

How about staying 6 feet away from an at-risk person? How much is that? It’s free!

Maybe you have enough money left to splurge on a hand disinfectant and a mask. To kick it up a notch.

The simple act of handwashing and social distancing (20%) can assure healthcare continuity to the general population, the 80%.

Parting Thought

The habit of proper handwashing and social isolation prevents infections to the elderly and the chronically ill, and the rest of the people around you and yourself.

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A minority of Covid-19 patients make a majority of the effects

The 80/20 Rule to the Rescue

Parting Thought

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