At first glance of the table below, the Wuhan coronavirus does not look too bad because it’s case fatality rate is the lowest at 2%.
The Case Fatality Rate or CFR is the number who died divided by the number who have the disease. It reflects how deadly the condition is.
The Marburg and Ebola viruses have a very high case fatality rate at 80% and 40.4%, respectively.
The difference is, the Marburg and ebola patients show symptoms right away. SARS, another coronavirus, becomes infectious only when the symptoms appear. Those virus properties are shared with the other viruses on the list.
Those same qualities make it easy to identify and isolate them. Making it easier to contain the epidemic.
In contrast, the people infected with the Wuhan coronavirus have 5-14 days where they don’t have any symptoms. During that time, they are free to go about in their community, unknowingly spreading the disease, including traveling internationally. In the end, more people will end up with the Wuhan coronavirus.
If we run the numbers using the CFR of 2%,
- 2,000 will die in 100,000 cases
- 20, 000 will die in 1 million cases.
- 200,000 will die in 10 million cases
As of now, according to the Johns Hopkins CSSE, the coronavirus is in 27 countries with 13,983 cases and 304 deaths.
Stay safe and exercise precautions by wearing a mask, washing your hands, use disinfectants, and see a doctor if you feel sick.
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