The study, Increases in COVID‑19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68
countries and 2947 counties in the United States, reached a conclusion that runs counter to the official narrative that vaccination is effective and lowers COVID-19 cases.
S.V. Subramanian is the author. On Harvard’s faculty website, Dr. Subramanian is currently,
Professor of Population Health and Geography at Harvard University, and chair of the Faculty Advisory Group for the Center for Geographic Analysis at Harvard University.
He is a Primary Faculty in the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, a Core Faculty of the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, and a Faculty Affiliate of the Harvard Department of Sociology.
The peer-reviewed European Journal of Epidemiology has accepted the report for publishing.
The study’s objective was to answer the question, Does vaccination lower COVID-19 cases?
Data from 68 countries and 2,947 counties in the USA were obtained. For those not familiar, in the US, a country is a part of a state. For example, California has 58 counties. The whole US has 3,142 counties.
COVID-19 cases for cross-country analysis were obtained from Our World in Data. Records were obtained from the White House COVID-19 Team for counties.
Results
Country Level
Vaccination did not affect the number of COVID-19 cases in that country.
At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days.
The trend shows that countries with a higher percentage of vaccinated people have more COVID-19 cases.
In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such
that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days
Let’s look at the data as a trend line in the study. The upward slope of the line in the graph below shows that the countries with the higher percentage of vaccination have more cases of COVID-19.
If the vaccination works in preventing COVID-19, the line should be trending down, just like the dark black line that I drew in the same graph below.
The authors provided more examples,
The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal.
Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their
population fully vaccinated
US Counties
The result showed that it did not matter if the percentage of vaccinated people was high or low; the number of COVID-19 cases was similar.
Across the US counties too, the median new COVID-19
cases per 100,000 people in the last 7 days is largely similar
across the categories of percent population fully vaccinated
There is no improvement in the number of COVID-19 cases in counties with higher levels of vaccination.
Notably there is also substantial county variation in new COVID-19 cases within categories of percentage population fully vaccinated.
There also appears to be no significant signaling of COVID-19 cases decreasing with higher percentages of population fully vaccinated .
The bar graph below represents the different percentages of vaccination from 0-5% to 70+%. The height of the bars represents the number of COVID-19 cases. The graph represents 2,947 counties in the US.
Notice that the heights of the bars are almost the same height
The CDC said that the Pfizer Biontech and Moderna vaccines are 96% effective, and the Janssen is 84%.
If that is true, the heights of the bar should get shorter from left to right. The more people get vaccinated, the lower the cases should be.
If you draw a straight line from the top of the bars, it should look like the line below.
That is not the case. The report gave the following examples.
Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage
of population fully vaccinated (99.9–84.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4
of them as “High” Transmission counties.Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classified as “High” transmission.
What about the counties with the lowest vaccination rates?
Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classified as “low” transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%.
The counties that have low vaccination rates have lower COVID-19 cases.
In summary, the study showed that vaccination is irrelevant in preventing COVID-19.
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Reference:
Subramanian SV, Kumar A. Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States [published online ahead of print, 2021 Sep 30]. Eur J Epidemiol. 2021;1-4. doi:10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7
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