Excess deaths continue in 2022

Posted on by Jesse Santiano, M.D.

I went to the CDC Wonder website to see if excess deaths are still present in 2022. February 2022 is still incomplete, so I compared only the month of January for each year from 2018 to 2022. Using the same month from 2018 to 2022 removes the seasonal variations in deaths.

2018 and 2019 are the pre-pandemic years and serve as a baseline trend. 2020 is the start of COVID-19, but in January 2020, it was just beginning, and there were only a tiny amount of COVID-19 deaths.

CDC: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Surveillance — United States, January 22–May 30, 2020

Since the shots were started in December 2020 (see appendix at the bottom), January 2021 will reflect the excess deaths from (a) COVID-19, (b) its injections for 18 and older, and (c) the effects of the lockdowns like suicides and domestic violence.

January 2022 reflects the excess deaths from the five years and older. Those are primarily due to the COVID injections since the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant is the Omicron which is much less deadly than previous variants.

I grouped the ages into 10-year groups for simplicity. The years 2018 to 2022 have different features, which are discussed below. The table below is presented and repeated in the lower part of the page. The excess deaths (in red) for 2022 are in the right-most column.

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What the table means

2018, 2019, and 2020

The number of deaths for all age groups in 2019 is lower than in 2018. There is a downward trend in mortality based on United Nations projections, as shown by the graph from macrotrends.net below.

A slight increase in deaths in January 2020 is expected, and this is due to population growth. According to the CDC, the rise in fatalities secondary to COVID-19 started in March 2020. (See CDC graph above)

2021

January 2021 shows the deaths from all causes, including COVID-19 and its shots. The age groups 18 and above who started to have the COVID injections in December 2020 will have more deaths in January 2021 than in January 2020.

In contrast, the <1 year to 14 years old who started late in getting the COVID shots (October 29, 2021, for 5-11 years old) have a lower number of deaths in 2021.

2022

The all-cause deaths in 2022 will include deaths from the less lethal Omicron variant and booster shots. The expected number of mortalities should be known for baseline comparison to know if there are excess deaths. The population and number of fatalities typically go up every year.

According to the research platform macrotrends.net, the deaths from 2018 to 2019 and 2019 to 2020 should increase only by 1.12%. While 2020 to 2021 and 2021 to 2022 should vary by only 1.09%.

Source: United Nations – World Population Prospects

Method

To know the number of expected January 2022 deaths, I multiplied the values from 2020 by 1.09% (factor from macrotrends) to get the expected number of deaths for 2022. 2021 can not be used since a more lethal SARS-CoV-2 variant, and the COVID-19 shots are already present, which are not normal conditions.

Then I subtracted the results (expected number in 2022) from the actual numbers from the 2022 column to get the excess deaths for 2022.

The excess deaths for January 2022 is the last column on the right. The numbers in red are the excess deaths for January 2022 for ages 15 and above. The highly vaccinated groups. The highest excess deaths are in the 65-74 and 75-84 age groups at 16,754 and 20,667. (See table below)

The percent increases in excess deaths (excess/expected) are 15% for 25-34,  30% for 35-44, 26% for 45 to 64, 32% for 65 to 84 and 20% for 85+ years old. These percentages are lower than the one reported by the One America CEO.

Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Here is another representation of the data above in bar graphs. You can see that the heights (deaths) of the yellow (2021) and blue (2022) bar graphs are higher than 2019 (orange) and 2020 (gray).

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In summary, this article shows that in January 2022, the death rates continue to exceed the expected number of deaths. If my assumptions and calculations are accurate, we may be witnessing the lasting effects of experimental gene therapy shots.

 

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Related:

  1. Excess deaths in Scotland 2021
  2. More COVID jabbed dead from COVID-19 than the unvaxxed in Scotland
  3. Above-average deaths of 5 to 74 years old for the year 2021
  4. US data: High numbers of autopsies done in 2021 among 15-64 years old.
  5. CDC data shows higher deaths from 25-54 years old in 2021 compared to 2018-2020
  6. 145 countries with higher COVID-19 cases and deaths after the COVID shots
  7. Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64
  8. Vaccine-induced deaths in the US and Europe are way higher than the CDC reports!
  9. German Analysis: The Higher the Vaccination Rate, the Higher the Excess Mortality
  10. The effects of lockdowns on COVID-19 deaths
  11. Mothers with young children were mostly harmed by the Melbourne lockdown
  12. Is the Covid-19 epidemic Fake News?

Covid-19 Disease Outcomes

Appendix:

COVID-19 Injections Rollout Dates

  1. In December 2020, the FDA issued Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. On February 27, 2021, FDA issued (EUA) for Janssen’s (Johnson and Johnson) COVID-19 vaccine for those 18 and above.
  2. On May 10, 2021, the FDA expanded the EUA of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine to include adolescents 12–15 years of age.
  3. On September 22, 2021, FDA authorized a booster dose of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine for those aged 18 through 65 years and older.
  4. On October 29, 2021, the FDA authorized EUA for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for children 5-11 years.
  5. On November 19, 2021, FDA amends EUAs for COVID-19 mRNA vaccines for booster doses for 18 years and older.
  6. December 9, 2021, FDA and CDC expand Pfizer-BioNTech booster recommendations to 16 and 17 years of age.

 

Citations:

  1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Provisional Multiple Cause of Death on CDC WONDER Online Database. Data are from the final Multiple Cause of Death Files, 2018-2020, and provisional data for 2021-2022, compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10-provisional.html on March 30, 2022, 4:22:12 PM
  2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. Provisional Multiple Cause of Death on CDC WONDER Online Database. Data are from the final Multiple Cause of Death Files, 2018-2020, and provisional data for 2021-2022, compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd-icd10-provisional.html on March 30, 2022, 3:37:45 PM

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