Excess Deaths in the US: 2023 and 2024

Addendum Nov. 11, 2024

As an observant reader, JB corrected my calculations for this article, which was initially published on Mar. 3, 2024. Thank you very much, JB, for setting the record straight. Please see his comment and calculations below:

Jesse,

I believe you have made a mathematical error on this page:
https://drjessesantiano.com/excess-deaths-in-the-us-2023-and-2024/

You state that the total number of excess deaths for 2023 in the US was 3,680. I believe the correct figure is 364,900 (!!). Here is the math (based on your numbers):

US death rate (2023) = 10.0843 per 1000
Excess death rate = 1.0843 per 1000
Total deaths in 2023 = 3,394,001

If 3,394,001 deaths represents 10.0843 deaths per 1000 (total death rate), then 1.0843 excess deaths per 1000 will be 3,394,001 * (1.0843/10.0843) = 364,900

Another way to calculate it: 336 million (total population) * 1.0843 / 1000 = 364K.

Please double check!

The excess deaths were even higher than I initially calculated! They increased from 3,680 to 364,900 in 2023.

Original article starts below:

Excess deaths is the number of deaths that is more than expected.

In the study of epidemics, the excess deaths or excess mortality is a measure of the increase in the number of deaths during a time period and/or in a certain group, as compared to the expected value or statistical trend during a reference period (typically of five years) or in a reference population.[1]

For this article, the excess deaths are measured as death rates per 1,000 people. Death rates use the number of people or population as a denominator and make comparison of time trends easier.

Dead or Kicking

I used the death rates and graphs from the website deadorkicking.com, which compiles death statistics from:

Baseline

As a baseline, we have the following death rates for 2015 to 2019 before the pandemic.

Years Death rate/1,000 population
2015 8.4395
2016 8.4928
2017 8.6378
2018 8.6781
2019 8.6974

The upward trend coincides with the increases in population in those years. You will see the population growth in the graphs later.

Pandemic

2020 was the year that the COVID-19 pandemic started, and excess deaths began.

2020 10.2536 death rate

mRNA Jabs Started

In 2021, when the “safe and effective” COVID-19 mRNA shots were mandated or coerced upon the population, there was a slight dip in the death rate, but the excess deaths continued.

2021 10.2032

In 2022, the death rate is still higher, and we can still see a higher number of deaths than expected. So much for safe and effective.

2022 10.1434

The graph below compares the Total number of deaths, Death rates, and Population in the US from 1999 to 2022.

You will see the upward trend in the population growth shown by the green line. The spike in the total number of deaths in blue coincides with the death rate in red.

Source: https://deadorkicking.com/death-statistics/us/today/

Today, March 3, 2024, the graph on the deadorkicking website seems stuck in 2022.

Where is the 2023 and 2024 data for the US? Are they hiding it? If so, why?

Getting the 2023 and 2024 death rate

If you go to the Filter and click on the United States, 2023, and submit as shown below

Source: https://deadorkicking.com/death-statistics/

You will see the death rate for 2023 is still high at 10.0843 per thousand.

To get 2024, in the Filter, click on the United States, this year, and submit; the higher-than-expected death rate of 10.0266 per thousand is obtained.

Let me show you the death rates from 2015 to 2019 and 2020 to 2024.

Years Death rate/1,000 population
2015 8.4395
2016 8.4928
2017 8.6378
2018 8.6781
2019 8.6974
2020 10.2536
2021 10.2032
2023 10.0843
2024 10.0266 (partial)

Are 2023 and 2024 still in excess?

Just by looking at the numbers, excess deaths are still present.

But by how much?

Here is how to find out.

If you draw a straight line in the trend from 2009 to 2019, we should see that the death rate for 2024 should be slightly above 9/1,000 if you continue the straight red line below.

How many excess deaths are there in 2023?

10.0843 – 9 = 1.0843

Total deaths in 2023 is 3,394,001. Multiply by 0.0010843, and there will be 3,680 excess deaths in the US for 2023.

The Young are Dying/Getting Killed

In 2020, at the height of the pandemic with the most virulent strains of the SARS-CoV-2, the D614G, Alpha, Beta, and Delta strains, here are the death rates per age group.

Source: https://deadorkicking.com/death-statistics/us/2020/

In 2023, the third year of the “safe and effective shots,” here was the number of deaths per age group. Prepare to be shocked.

Source: https://deadorkicking.com/death-statistics/us/2023/There is a double-digit rise in 2023 deaths compared to 2022 from 15-24, 24-35, 35-44, and 45-54 years old!

The numbers on the tables may be blurred, so I tabulated them below for easier reading. For a better appreciation of the trend, I included 2019 to 2023.

Percent Change of Deaths from the previous year in the US by age groups

Note the double-digit percentage rise in deaths from the 15 to 64 year-old since the start of the death jabs (2021-2023).

The decline in deaths among those older than 75 if ar old group is due to the high number of deaths in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.

You may notice the lower (negative percent change) in the Infant Mortality Rate (deaths/1000 live births) and the deaths among the less than one-year-old. At face value, some may think there is a sudden improvement in infant care in the US from 2021 onwards.

Take a look at this article from ProPublica in March 2023,

Federal Study Calls US Stillbirth Rate “Unacceptably High” and Recommends Action

A National Institutes of Health report decried stillbirths as a “major public health concern” and said the nation needed to do more to address the problem through research and prevention.

The National Institutes of Health report, titled “Working to Address the Tragedy of Stillbirth,” mirrored findings of an investigation by ProPublica last year into the U.S. stillbirth crisis, in which more than 20,000 pregnancies every year are lost at 20 weeks or more and the expected baby is born dead.

If babies are dying before they are born, do you think it decreases the number of babies that will die before their first birthday?

What do you think caused the stillbirths? What explains the increase in the deaths?

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Articles about Excess Deaths

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Excess_mortality
Deadorkicking.com

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