Hidden Truth: How The 14-Day Rule Distorted COVID-19 Vaccine Deaths

Knowing the real-world effects of vaccines requires careful examination of all-cause mortality data, that compares vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

Alessandria and his group published a study in F1000 Research in February 2025. It provides new insights using publicly available data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The UK Office of National Statistics

The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the largest independent producer of official statistics in the United Kingdom and the recognized national statistical institute. It plays a crucial role in gathering, analyzing, and disseminating statistical data about the UK’s economy, population, society, and health.

Relevance to COVID-19 Research:

The ONS has been instrumental in tracking COVID-19 outcomes and publishing data sets, including all-cause mortality according to vaccination status.

Study Overview

The researchers analyzed UK data collected from April 2021 to May 2023, examining death rates from all causes by different age groups and COVID-19 vaccination status.[1]

Recall that the COVID shots were not approved by was released through Emergency Use Authorization in early 2021.

They calculated the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), comparing vaccinated individuals to their unvaccinated counterparts.

What is the Standardized Mortality Ratio?

Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) is a statistical measure used to compare the observed number of deaths in a study population with the expected number of deaths in a standard or reference population.

Calculation:

Standardized Mortality Rate = Observed Deaths Divided by Expected Deaths

SMR = Observed Deaths/Expected Deaths

Interpretation:

SMR = 1: Indicates that the observed deaths match exactly what’s expected.
SMR < 1: Suggests fewer deaths occurred than expected (indicating lower risk).
SMR > 1: Indicates more deaths than expected (suggesting higher risk).

Key Findings of the All Cause Mortality Study

The study uncovered several significant points:

Initial Lower Death Rates in Vaccinated Groups:
- Right after vaccination, death rates, including non-COVID deaths, were much lower for vaccinated people.
- This was compared to unvaccinated people across all age groups.
- The researchers note this is likely a statistical bias and not a true protective effect of the vaccine against non-COVID causes of death.
Death Rates Increased Over Time:
- Over time, death rates for vaccinated groups rose significantly in all age groups.
- For younger adults (18-39) and the elderly (80+), death rates eventually surpassed those of the unvaccinated.
- For other age groups, if the trend continued, death rates for the vaccinated were projected to also exceed the unvaccinated.
Non-COVID Deaths Showed Similar Trends:
- The same pattern was seen in deaths unrelated to COVID-19, reinforcing concerns about possible biases or unexpected long-term effects.

So what explains the low death rates right after COVID-19 vaccination only to increase with time?

Enter The 14-day Rule

The “14-day rule,” classifying individuals as “unvaccinated” until two weeks after vaccination this was used with COVID-19 vaccines.

In 2021, public health authorities (like the CDC and WHO) adopted it broadly to track the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine.[3][4]

When Did the 14 day Rule Start?

The 14-day definition was introduced during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, around late 2020 to early 2021. In some countries like the Czech Republic, it is 22 days.

Organizations like the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO standardized this definition in early 2021. Individuals are classified as vaccinated only after 14 days since their first dose.

This applies to a two-dose schedule like the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 shots and the single-dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine. This part of the 14-day rule played a central role in the study.

A person is considered “fully vaccinated” until two weeks after completing their vaccination series. This includes two weeks after the second dose of Pfizer and Moderna or two weeks after the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Why Was the 14-Day Rule Introduced?

Immunological Basis

The CDC said it typically takes the human body about two weeks after vaccination to mount a robust immune response and achieve optimal protective antibody levels against COVID-19. Before this period, individuals might still contract or spread the virus, as immunity is incomplete.

To Standardize COVID-19 Effectiveness Studies

Public health authorities established this clear timeframe to measure vaccine effectiveness more accurately. If infections or deaths occurred before the first dose or full immunity developed, counting them as “vaccinated” cases could underestimate vaccine effectiveness and undermine the narrative.

But there is a problem with this 14-day rule. If a COVID-19 infection or death from its side effects happens 14 days after the first shot from any cause, then the person is counted as unvaccinated.

Another problem with this 14 day rule is that it should not have been applied to a gene therapy (mRNA) injection relabeled as a vaccine. This is because it has not been fully tested. Remember that it was emergency-use authorized?

Is This 14-Day Rule Only for COVID-19 Vaccines?

Not exclusively, but predominantly so.
Historically, vaccine effectiveness was measured differently, and immediate post-vaccination periods weren’t always systematically excluded.
For some vaccines, immunity does build gradually (e.g., influenza vaccine, hepatitis vaccines), but explicit global definitions with a strict “14-day” rule weren’t common or broadly standardized until COVID-19 vaccines emerged.
COVID-19 was unique due to its global urgency, which led the health organization (or big pharma?) to precisely define vaccination status and timing criteria for epidemiological studies and public health reporting.

Historical Context:

Before COVID-19, vaccine status for epidemiological tracking varied by disease and vaccine:
- Influenza is typically assessed by “seasonal protection,” without standardized post-vaccination exclusion periods.
- Measles or other childhood vaccines: Often defined as vaccinated from the administration day, or sometimes after shorter intervals (days rather than weeks), due to faster immune responses.

In short, the explicit and widespread use of a 14-day rule became standardized primarily with COVID-19 vaccines, driven by the need to continue the narrative that the COVID-19 shots are “safe and effective.” Forget about epidemiological accuracy. Obfuscate the data to get the results that fits the lie.

What is the Consequence of the 14-day rule?

The effect is huge! All government agencies that gather data on the safety and effectiveness of the COVID-19 shots have to apply this rule when classifying who is COVID-19 vaccinated or unvaccinated.

What? Do you mean like the UK Office of National Statistics?

Yes, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) indeed applied a similar definition, using the “14-day rule,” when reporting COVID-19 vaccination data and mortality outcomes.

Knowing 14 day rule is like applying a magnifying glass to COVID-19 vaccine data

How Did the UK ONS Define Vaccination Status?

The ONS categorized vaccination status based on intervals after vaccination:

Unvaccinated: Individuals who received no vaccine doses and those who received a vaccine but had not passed the 14-day rule.

Vaccinated: Individuals are classified as vaccinated only after 14 or 21 days (depending on the specific vaccine) post-vaccination.

This classification also applies if a person gets sick with COVID-19, develops any complications or side effects from the shots, or dies from any cause.

Thus, anyone who died or contracted COVID-19 within 14 to 21 days of vaccination was considered unvaccinated or “partially vaccinated.”

The 14-day rule for the COVID-19 vaccination status hid deaths among the vaccinated

The Impact of The 14 Day Rule

Since statistical agencies like the UK ONS and VAERS use this classification for their data. Researchers will unwittingly be led to use the same classification of vaccinated versus unvaccinated.

This definition could inadvertently inflate mortality or infection numbers in the unvaccinated category. If an unlucky COVID-19 vaccinated person dies within 14 days after vaccination, their will be put in the unvaccinated list.

This impacts the perceived vaccine effectiveness. But never mind scientific accuracy. There are billions to be made.

So, let’s go back to the UK ONS study results.

What if the 14 day rule is Removed from the All-Cause Mortality Study?

If the 14-day rule was removed from the 2025 UK ONS study, the key findings would likely shift in the following ways, revealing a less favorable but more accurate picture of COVID-19 vaccine mortality risks:

1. Short-Term Mortality Would Increase for the Vaccinated Group

Current Study (With 14-Day Rule): Early deaths (Days 0–14 post-vaccination) are excluded from the vaccinated group, making vaccines appear safer in the short term.
Without 14-Day Rule:
- Deaths from acute vaccine reactions (e.g., myocarditis, blood clots, anaphylaxis) would be included in the vaccinated group, increasing early mortality rates.
- The initial SMR (Standardized Mortality Ratio) would be higher, possibly closer to or even above 1.0 instantly after vaccination.
- The illusion that vaccines “reduce all-cause mortality” in the first weeks would disappear.

2. The “Healthy Vaccinee Effect” Would Be Reduced

Current Study: The 14-day rule creates artificial survivorship bias. Only those who live past 14 days are counted as vaccinated. This excludes frail or high-risk individuals who died soon after vaccination.
Without 14-Day Rule:
- The vaccinated group would include more high-risk individuals, making the cohort more comparable to the unvaccinated at baseline.
- The initial SMR drop (SMR << 1) would shrink or vanish, as the “healthy vaccinee” bias is reduced.

3. Non-COVID Mortality Would No Longer Show an Implausible “Protective Effect”

Current Study: Non-COVID SMRs were much lower than 1.0 early on, suggesting vaccines magically prevent car accidents, cancer, etc.—a clear statistical artifact of the 14-day rule.
Without 14-Day Rule:
- Non-COVID SMRs would start closer to 1.0, as there’s no biological reason vaccines should prevent unrelated deaths.
- Any later rise in non-COVID deaths (e.g., from cardiac events, immune effects) would be more visible, strengthening concerns about vaccine-related harms.

4. The Mortality Crossover (SMR > 1) Might Happen Sooner

Current Study: Vaccinated groups eventually showed higher mortality (SMR > 1), but only after weeks/months.
Without 14-Day Rule:
- The point where vaccinated mortality exceeds unvaccinated (SMR > 1) could occur earlier. This happens because early adverse events are no longer hidden.
- The magnitude of excess deaths might also be larger, since the highest-risk individuals (who died early) are now fairly counted.

5. The Overall Risk-Benefit Profile Would Look Less Favorable

Current Study: The 14-day rule makes vaccines appear “protective at first, risky later.”
Without 14-Day Rule:
- The early “benefit” would shrink or disappear, revealing a more consistent (and possibly steeper) rise in mortality over time.
- The net mortality effect might shift from “possibly beneficial” to “neutral or harmful” in some age groups.

Hypothetical Recalculation of the Data Without the 14-Day Rule

Scenario	With 14-Day Rule (Current Study)	Without 14-Day Rule (Estimated)
Early SMR (Days 0–14)	Artificially low (SMR << 1)	Closer to 1.0 (or even >1 if acute risks are high)
Non-COVID SMR	Implausibly low (bias)	Starts near 1.0 (more realistic)
Time to SMR > 1	Later (weeks/months)	Sooner (days/weeks)
Peak Excess Mortality	Underestimated	Higher (more deaths counted)

Conclusion: The 14-Day Rule Likely Masked Early Vaccine Risks

Removing it would:

Eliminate artificial early “safety” signals.
Reveal a sharper, more consistent mortality increase post-vaccination.
Make non-COVID mortality trends biologically plausible (no fake “protection”).
Potentially show net harm in some groups (rather than delayed risk).

This suggests that real-world vaccine risks may have been systematically underestimated due to this statistical exclusion.

So next time you see a COVID-19 vaccine study, ask what is their definition of unvaccinated.

Don’t Get Sick or Die Suddenly!

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Related:

Reference:

Alessandria M, Malatesta G, Di Palmo G, Cosentino M, Donzelli A. All-cause mortality according to COVID-19 vaccination status: An analysis of the UK office for National statistics public data. F1000Res. 2025 Feb 20;13:886. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.154058.2. PMID: 40028449; PMCID: PMC11868741.
Office for National Statistics. “Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England.”
ONS Publications. https://www.ons.gov.uk
WHO- Guidance Document Cohort study to measure COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among health workers
CDC- SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Hospitalizations Among Persons Aged ≥16 Years, by Vaccination Status

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Hidden Truth: How The 14-Day Rule Distorted COVID-19 Vaccine Deaths